Let's Play GM: Cole Hamels

Cole Hamels is 5-3 with a 2.89 ERA this year. For his career, he's 29-16 with a 3.54 ERA in 60 starts. He's 24 years old, and can't become a free agent until 2012. Last night, he threw his first career shutout, going 9 innings and only giving up 4 hits.

Consensus is, this guy's pretty good. So the smart thing to do would be to sign him now to a deal around 6 years, which will buy out his first two years of free agency, right?

Well, kinda.

Think about it like this. You're dating a certain young lady. She's an overall solid performer. Looks nice, doesn't embarass you in public, occasionally shuts up, and you're wondering if you should lock her down for the long term. The problem is, she occassionaly gets "injured" and can't perform at the high level you've come to expect. You're concerned that once you lock her down to a long term deal, it'll take away all her motivation to continue to strive to that All-Star level. It's a tough one. Let's break it down.

The Bad. Pat Burell. he's played well the past two years, but he was granted a similar package after he had a stellar second-year campaign in which he was decribed as possibly becoming "the right handed Barry Bonds." So while he's played well, he hasn't quite lived up to that moniker. I'm think Heather Locklear here. Fine lady, sure she is. Then why is she always a free agent? Why David Spade? Why, why, why?

The Good: Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley. How great does Utley's 7 year 85 million dollar contract look now? Utley was in a similar situation after 2 year's service, and the phils bought out the rest of his arbitration years and the first few free agent years. Rollins is signed through 2011 with what amounts to a six-year, 46.6 million dollar deal (That includes a club option, but I'm pretty sure the Phils will pay him 8.5 million to play in 2011). Think of Candace Cameron and Jennie Finch.

Candace Cameron played DJ Tanner on full house, married Valeri Bure (oops, wrong Bure!) and is now pretty much a full time homemaker.

Jennie Finch was/is a softball pitcher for the Arizona Wildcats and Team USA. She amassed over 1,000 strikouts in her college career and won three gold medals. She also married pitcher Casey Daigle of the Minnesota Twins, or somewhere. He hasn't pitched in the majors since 2006.

The Rest: Hamels has a history of injury problems, including a degenerative condition in his back, elbow problems last year, and breaking his throwing hand in a bar fight. He's also a pitcher, and while starting pitchers are valuable, they are also notoriously injury-prone. I'm thinking Jessica Alba here. Good measurements, suspect intangibles. A Wait-and-see approach is advised.

So what do we think, Phils Phans? lock him up?